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Holiday Shopping Forecast: Up, Early, Online

By Meredith Schwartz -- Gifts and Dec, 11/22/2006 7:10:00 AM

The National Retail Federation (NRF) predicts that holiday spending will grow 5 percent this year. The average consumer plans to spend $791.10 on gifts, up from $738.11 last year, according to the 2006 Holiday Consumer Intentions and Actions Survey conducted by BIGresearch. (While they’re shopping, they will also spend $99.22 on themselves.) Americans also plan to spend an average of $91.20 on candy and food and $30.57 on greeting cards and postage.

Where They Unity Marketing predicts an even higher increase: based on a survey of 700 shoppers, the research firm found that givers will spend $949 on average, up 9.1 percent from the $870 spent last year. Some 58 percent will spend about the same, 18 percent expect to spend an average of 12.5 percent more. Even better news for specialty retailers: 69 percent say they plan on shopping at discounters, down from 78 percent last year. Not all that spending is on gifts you can wrap, however: 26 percent say they will give a gift of experience (dining, entertainment, or beauty/spa) compared to 19 percent last year. In a separate study, Unity Marketing also found that luxury consumers (those with the top 25 percent of U.S. household incomes) plan to spend about twice as much on holiday gifts: an average of $1,903.

Online Boom
Online holiday sales are projected to grow much faster than holiday sales as a whole, rising 18 percent to $32 billion, according to Jupiter Research. Over 114 million will shop on the web, 6 percent more than last year. Of online retailers, 83 percent will offer free shipping, up from 64 percent two years ago.

Shop Early, Shop Often
Holiday shopping is definitely moving earlier. About a third of consumers surveyed had started shopping by November 7, 16 percent more than last year, according to Unity Marketing. The NRF found that a whopping 40.4 percent of consumers began their holiday shopping before Halloween, and Shop.org, the online arm of NRF, found that more than half of major retailers began web promotions by November 4.

HolidayStress
It’s not all sweetness and light at the mall, however. According to a phone survey by Novations Group, a Boston-based training and consulting firm, consumers report year-to-year declines in service quality. Among common complaints, long lines topped the list at 75 percent, followed by too few employees, out of stock items, bad customer service and employees who don’t know the merchandise. Younger customers are especially bothered by long lines; older customers are more likely to complain of poor service.
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