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Consumer Holiday Spending Forecast

Outlook indicates more shoppers looking to mass merchandisers

By Staff -- Gifts and Dec, 10/31/2008 12:00:00 AM

According to GfK Roper Consulting’s Holiday Shopping study, consumers will be cutting back and looking for practical gifts this Christmas. Store gift cards ranked first (up from third in 2007); personal products such as cosmetics and lotions now rank third, up from seventh in 2007, and jewelry/accessories and video games drop out of the top ten from eighth and ninth in 2007, to be replaced by specialty foods/beverages and service gift cards.
Shoppers aren’t just spending differently, they’re spending less: 45 percent plan to spend less on gifts (up from a third last year). More than half plan to spend less on items for themselves while shopping for others, travel, home and entertaining (62, 57 and 53 percent respectively), while exactly half of women who plan to cut back will be looking for sales, and practically half — 49 percent — plan to spend less on greeting cards, gift wrap and ribbons.
68 percent plan to do more shopping at mass discounters, 61 percent say holiday shopping and plans will be delayed due to the current economic and political situation, and another 61 percent say they will probably agree not to exchange gifts with some friends and family members.
But while Christmas declines, Halloween is growing. Total retail spending this Halloween will rise 5 percent to $5.77 billion, according to business research publisher IBISWorld Inc. Some 17 percent of the population participates in Halloween activities, and their spending breaks down into 35.9 percent on costumes, 30.5 percent on candy, 27.4 percent on decorations (including pumpkins), and 6.2 percent on greeting cards.

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