What to Buy, How to Pay
Tips on seasonal planning and curbing credit cards.
By Carol L. Schroeder -- Gifts and Dec, 3/1/2010 12:00:00 AM
Q: Writing orders for Halloween in April and Easter in October has my mind spinning. How can I possibly remember what sold so long after the season has ended?
A: “The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior,” according to the adage popularized by Dr. Phil. This certainly holds true of consumer buying habits. Keeping good records of customers' past buying behavior will help you buy the right goods for future seasons — as long as you factor in a splash of fickleness and a dash of desire for change.
One of the most important reasons to track seasonal merchandise is to avoid overbuying or its evil twin, underbuying. One can lead to financial difficulties from too much carryover (or too many markdowns) and the other to lost opportunities for sales. You may not need to know what the hottest Valentines were in 2010, but you will want to know that you sold 42 dozen. You are much more likely to sell 40-50 dozen next year than 20 dozen, or 100 dozen.
It's also helpful to know what merchandise moved slowly. Seasonal merchandise has a short window of opportunity, so you don't have the luxury of waiting for someone to fall in love with an item. You don't want to reorder any goods that lingered.
I asked one of my sales reps whether most of the buyers she works with have a system for tracking seasonal merchandise, and she said that aside from a very few using POS systems, most just rely on their memories.
I don't know about you, but my mind has plenty going on without a growing succession of Santas, bunnies and ghosts. For many years, we've compiled seasonal planning notebooks that allow us to track what's sold well and not sold well for each holiday. We take copies of recent pages to trade shows.
We use two different approaches to track merchandise. The first is by category, which helps if you buy similar merchandise from different vendors. Set up a page for each category, then list purchases by vendor, including either a brief description or just the total quantity.
The second method, which we use for minor holidays, is by vendor. Simply write the name of the company and a list of what you've ordered. If the order is large, Xerox the whole P.O. and put it in the notebook.
A few days before each holiday, we take out our seasonal records and take notes. It's clear by then what is selling well. These can be a yes, no or maybe, or an actual count.
This count varies from a post-holiday inventory, especially if you clearance some of the goods. But the number sold at full price is what you want to look at for future buying. After the holiday, add the inventory of what is being carried over.
Even if you use a POS system to track sales, seasonal records will give you an overview of what trends were hot. Be open to new colors and styles, of course, but be guided by what your customers liked best the year before.
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