Holiday Retail to be Worst in Six Years, NRF Forecasts
-- Gifts and Dec, 9/24/2008 2:08:00 PM
New York — The National Retail Federation predicts that holiday season retail sales will rise 2.2 percent this year to $470.4 billion. While not an outright drop, that anemic gain comes to only half the 10-year average of 4.4 percent growth, and marks the slowest growth since 2002, when holiday sales rose only 1.3 percent.
Holiday gift card sales are expected to drop 5 percent to $25 billion, according to a survey of more than 1,000 consumers conducted by consulting firm Archstone Consulting. That would be the first time gift card sales have fallen in at least six years. Consumers also are expected to shift their gift card spending towards household necessities such as groceries and gas or small indulgences such as dining at restaurants. Restaurant and fast-food outlets will sell more cards than any other category.
Other forecasters are similarly gloomy: according to Marketwatch.com, consulting firm TNS Retail Forward said holiday sales will be the weakest in 17 years, and Deloitte's retail group forecasts that holiday sales, excluding motor vehicles and gasoline, will increase 2½–3 percent during the November to- anuary period (less than last year's 3.4 percent increase, and one of the smallest since 1991’s 2 percent.)
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