Holiday sales expected to lag
By Staff -- Gifts and Dec, 9/23/2008 8:17:00 AM
WASHINGTON—The National Retail Federation said today it expects 2008 holiday season retail sales to grow just 2.2 percent, well off the industry’s 10 year average of 4.4 percent sales growth.
If the prediction proves accurate, the holiday season’s expected $470.4 billion tally—which for NRF is defined as retail sales in November and December and excludes purchases at automobile dealers, gas stations and restaurants—would represent the slowest holiday sales growth year-over-year since 2002, when sales rose just 1.3 percent.
“Current financial pressures and a lack of confidence in the economy will force shoppers to be very conservative with their holiday spending,” said NRF Chief Economist Rosalind Wells. “We expect consumers to be frugal this season and less willing to splurge on discretionary items.”
Putting an expected damper on holiday seasonal sales, according to NRF, will be “a struggling housing market and rising unemployment accompanied by meager income gains.” The association also predicts that high food and energy costs will continue, and continue to eat into consumers’ discretionary spending.
NRF does not foresee an economic turnaround until the second half of 2009.
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