A Shifting Sweet Spot
Business forecast sees interior West outpacing toy sales strongholds
By Daphne Garland-McLean -- Gifts and Dec, 4/1/2010 12:00:00 AM
According to the latest predictions by New York-based Easy Analytic Software Inc. (EASI), the games, toys and hobbies category is expected to experience double-digit growth between 2009 and 2014. Per EASI's statisticians, the United States will increase in sales from an estimated $53.3 billion in 2009 up to $60.5 billion in 2014. That's a 13.5 percent increase over the next five years.
Regionally, the South captured the greatest portion of sales in games, toys and hobbies in 2009 just as it does in terms of population. By EASI's estimates, this region took in 35 percent of all sales. Both the West and the Midwest grabbed a market share of 23 percent. Sales in the Northeast lagged behind all other regions with only a 19 percent share of total sales for games, toys and hobbies for the year.
However, when looking specifically at sales growth expectations for 2014 by region, there's a change in the alignment among the regions. The West is projected to have the largest growth rate over the five-year period. With a 16.0 percent growth rate, this region nudges out the South as the nation's fastest-growing region. The South's growth rate is expected to reach 15.5 percent within the same time-frame. The Midwest can look forward to growth of 11.5 percent while the Northeast will grow at a slower rate of 9.2 percent.
Two-fifths of all states are expected to exceed the national average of 13.5 percent in games, toys and hobbies sales growth. Eleven of those states hail from the West alone. Arizona expects to have the greatest growth of any state by the year 2014. The data shows that Arizona will generate growth of 24.2 percent during the next five years. Nevada, however, stays close with a 23.8 percent growth projection. Utah and Idaho both expect to garner sales increases around 20 percent. Other states in the West expected to exceed the national average include Colorado at 17.6 percent growth, Oregon at 16.2 percent, Washington at 16.0 percent, New Mexico at 15.0 percent, Hawaii at 14.6 percent, Wyoming at 14.3 percent and Montana at 14.0 percent.
The South is predicted to have eight states to grow faster than the national average, ranging in growth from 18.8 percent to 13.6 percent. Texas will have the greatest gain in the region, with a growth rate of 18.8 percent. This state is expected to grow from $4.1 billion in 2009 to $4.8 billion in 2014. Other fast-growing Southern states are Georgia with a projected growth rate of 18.7 percent, North Carolina at 17.9 percent and Florida with anticipated growth of 16.4 percent. South Carolina, Tennessee, Delaware and Arkansas are also projected to exceed the national average growth of 13.5 percent.
Only one state in the Midwest and none in the Northeast anticipate growth exceeding the national average. South Dakota in the Midwest is on track to reach growth of 14.2 percent in the games, toys and hobbies category over the next five years. New Hampshire will be the fastest-growing state in the Northeast if EASI's projections remain intact, although it will not grow faster than the nation as a whole.
According to EASI's figures, there were five metros with an estimated sales volume that exceeded $1 billion in 2009. New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, N.Y.-N.J.-Pa. had an estimated $3.2 billion in sales for 2009. And that amount is expected to increase to $3.5 billion by 2014. Although, expected growth for this metro is only 8.4 percent, the sheer volume of sales shows this metro is a significant player for sales of games, toys and hobbies. However, by 2014, five new players are expected to surpass $1 billion in sales and join the current members of the billion-dollar club, with the greater New York metro, Los Angeles metro, the greater Chicago metro, the Dallas metro area and the greater Philadelphia area. The greater Washington metro is expected to increase sales by 12.4 percent to reach $1.1 billion in the five-year time-frame. The metros of Houston, Texas, Miami, Fla., and the greater Boston and greater Atlanta areas will also top the $1 billion mark by 2014. Interestingly, the fastest-growing metro among those with the largest sales volume is expected to be the Phoenix, Ariz. metro. This metro is expected to grow 26.7 percent over the five-year period, but will fall just shy of reaching $1 billion in sales.
The fastest-growing metro among all metros is predicted to be Palm Coast, Fla. With an expected gain of 39.5 percent, this metro reigns supreme as it tops the chart in growth projections. Followed closely by Fernley, Nev., at 34.4 percent anticipated growth and St. George, Utah, at 34.2 percent, these metros remain leaders among both large and small metros in games, toys and hobbies sales growth. Another Florida-based metro, The Villages, with a growth projection of 33.9 percent, is also a chart topper in terms of growth. However, these are not the only metro areas with significant growth expectations. Of all 939 metro areas, one-third of them, including those listed above, are looking forward to growth percentages higher than the national average of 13.5 percent by 2014.
Regional Growth Projections By State for Games, Toys and Hobbies
in $ millions
| 2009 ESTIMATED | 2014 PROJECTED | PERCENT CHANGE | |
| Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Playthings market research |
|||
| Northeast | |||
| New Hampshire | $265.1 | $297.2 | 12.1% |
| Maine | 251.5 | 277.3 | 10.3 |
| Pennsylvania | 2,277.8 | 2,509.8 | 10.2 |
| Connecticut | 696.4 | 765.1 | 9.9 |
| Vermont | 122.8 | 134.8 | 9.8 |
| New Jersey | 1,591.4 | 1,745.0 | 9.7 |
| Massachusetts | 1,301.4 | 1,419.7 | 9.1 |
| New York | 3,331.1 | 3,602.5 | 8.1 |
| Rhode Island | 198.9 | 212.7 | 7.0 |
| Total Northeast | $10,036.3 | $10,964.1 | 9.2% |
| Midwest | |||
| South Dakota | $146.5 | $167.2 | 14.2% |
| Nebraska | 331.8 | 375.2 | 13.1 |
| Indiana | 1,159.3 | 1,310.2 | 13.0 |
| Minnesota | 1,023.5 | 1,153.3 | 12.7 |
| Kansas | 526.2 | 592.5 | 12.6 |
| Missouri | 1,054.8 | 1,186.3 | 12.5 |
| Wisconsin | 1,056.7 | 1,185.7 | 12.2 |
| Illinois | 2,263.3 | 2,529.5 | 11.8 |
| Iowa | 575.7 | 642.8 | 11.7 |
| North Dakota | 122.6 | 135.0 | 10.1 |
| Ohio | 2,052.4 | 2,255.2 | 9.9 |
| Michigan | 1,753.4 | 1,920.1 | 9.5 |
| Total Midwest | $12,066.2 | $13,453.1 | 11.5% |
| South | |||
| Texas | $4,066.3 | $4,832.1 | 18.8% |
| Georgia | 1,510.3 | 1,793.5 | 18.7 |
| North Carolina | 1,555.4 | 1,834.1 | 17.9 |
| Florida | 3,298.0 | 3,838.4 | 16.4 |
| South Carolina | 706.6 | 818.0 | 15.8 |
| Tennessee | 1,071.6 | 1,229.4 | 14.7 |
| Delaware | 157.8 | 180.1 | 14.1 |
| Arkansas | 474.3 | 538.7 | 13.6 |
| Virginia | 1,394.0 | 1,573.5 | 12.9 |
| Oklahoma | 654.0 | 736.6 | 12.6 |
| Kentucky | 759.7 | 854.9 | 12.5 |
| Alabama | 755.4 | 845.8 | 12.0 |
| Louisiana | 663.9 | 739.8 | 11.4 |
| Mississippi | 410.9 | 451.2 | 9.8 |
| Maryland | 969.1 | 1,063.8 | 9.8 |
| West Virginia | 321.4 | 350.2 | 8.9 |
| District of Columbia | 95.8 | 102.9 | 7.4 |
| Total South | $18,864.7 | $21,782.9 | 15.5% |
| West | |||
| Arizona | $1,173.5 | $1,457.6 | 24.2% |
| Nevada | 472.8 | 585.1 | 23.8 |
| Utah | 443.4 | 534.8 | 20.6 |
| Idaho | 266.1 | 320.5 | 20.4 |
| Colorado | 969.5 | 1,140.2 | 17.6 |
| Oregon | 695.5 | 808.4 | 16.2 |
| Washington | 1,236.0 | 1,433.5 | 16.0 |
| New Mexico | 341.5 | 392.8 | 15.0 |
| Hawaii | 204.7 | 234.5 | 14.6 |
| Wyoming | 104.4 | 119.3 | 14.3 |
| Montana | 179.9 | 205.2 | 14.0 |
| Alaska | 129.3 | 146.6 | 13.3 |
| California | 6,116.1 | 6,921.6 | 13.2 |
| Total West | $12,332.8 | $14,300.0 | 16.0% |
| Total All | $53,300.0 | $60,500.0 | 13.5% |
Fastest-Growing Metro Markets for Games, Toys and Hobbies in
$ millions
The 10 fastest-growing markets...
| AMONG LARGE MARKETS | 2009 ESTIMATED | 2014 PROJECTED | PERCENT CHANGE |
| Source: Easy Analytic Software Inc. and Playthings market research Large markets are defined as those with core populations greater than 50,000. Small markets are those with core populations between 10,000 and 50,000. |
|||
| in the Northeast | |||
| York-Hanover, Pa. | $80.3 | $94.0 | 17.2% |
| Allentown-Bethlehem-Easton, Pa.-N.J. | 156.2 | 180.2 | 15.3% |
| Reading, Pa. | 75.1 | 86.1 | 14.8% |
| Lebanon, Pa. | 24.5 | 28.1 | 14.6% |
| Vineland-Millville-Bridgeton, N.J. | 25.1 | 28.6 | 14.1% |
| Lancaster, Pa. | 92.1 | 104.8 | 13.8% |
| State College, Pa. | 27.0 | 30.7 | 13.7% |
| Harrisburg-Carlisle, Pa. | 103.6 | 116.6 | 12.6% |
| Atlantic City, N.J. | 44.0 | 49.6 | 12.6% |
| Ithaca, N.Y. | 20.1 | 22.6 | 12.3% |
| AMONG SMALL MARKETS | |||
| East Stroudsburg, Pa. | $29.1 | $34.0 | 16.7% |
| Chambersburg, Pa. | 26.6 | 31.0 | 16.6% |
| Lewisburg, Pa. | 9.0 | 10.3 | 15.4% |
| Gettysburg, Pa. | 18.6 | 21.4 | 15.1% |
| Willimantic, Conn. | 21.9 | 24.9 | 13.8% |
| Concord, N.H. | 30.2 | 34.2 | 13.2% |
| Laconia, N.H. | 12.1 | 13.6 | 12.0% |
| Claremont, N.H. | 8.3 | 9.3 | 11.7% |
| Augusta-Waterville, Maine | 23.1 | 25.6 | 11.1% |
| Keene, N.H. | 15.4 | 17.1 | 10.9% |
| in the Midwest | |||
| Sioux Falls, S.D. | $45.6 | $55.8 | 22.4% |
| Springfield, Mo. | 79.8 | 95.4 | 19.5% |
| Des Moines-West Des Moines, Iowa | 112.8 | 134.3 | 19.1% |
| Fargo, N.D.-Minn. | 39.7 | 46.8 | 18.0% |
| Iowa City, Iowa | 30.9 | 36.3 | 17.6% |
| Lincoln, Neb. | 59.3 | 69.5 | 17.3% |
| Rockford, Ill. | 62.5 | 73.2 | 17.3% |
| Ames, Iowa | 17.9 | 21.0 | 17.2% |
| Indianapolis-Carmel, Ind. | 320.7 | 375.6 | 17.1% |
| Columbia, Mo. | 31.2 | 36.5 | 17.1% |
| AMONG SMALL MARKETS | |||
| Branson, Mo. | $14.3 | $17.0 | 18.8% |
| Farmington, Mo. | 10.5 | 12.4 | 17.8% |
| Faribault-Northfield, Minn. | 12.8 | 14.8 | 16.3% |
| Alexandria, Minn. | 6.8 | 7.8 | 15.2% |
| Brainerd, Minn. | 16.8 | 19.4 | 15.1% |
| Monroe, Wis. | 6.8 | 7.8 | 15.1% |
| Lebanon, Mo. | 6.1 | 7.1 | 15.0% |
| Bemidji, Minn. | 7.4 | 8.5 | 15.0% |
| Owatonna, Minn. | 6.9 | 8.0 | 14.9% |
| Mankato-North Mankato, Minn. | 18.1 | 20.8 | 14.9% |
| in the South | |||
| Palm Coast, Fla. | $17.0 | $23.7 | 39.5% |
| Raleigh-Cary, N.C. | 202.6 | 259.6 | 28.2% |
| Austin-Round Rock, Texas | 310.6 | 396.5 | 27.7% |
| Myrtle Beach-Conway-North Myrtle Beach, S.C. | 44.6 | 56.3 | 26.3% |
| Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Fla. | 122.3 | 154.4 | 26.3% |
| Gainesville, Ga. | 30.0 | 37.9 | 26.2% |
| Charlotte-Gastonia-Concord, N.C.-S.C. | 304.5 | 381.9 | 25.4% |
| Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.-Mo. | 80.5 | 99.6 | 23.8% |
| Ocala, Fla. | 56.9 | 70.4 | 23.7% |
| Wilmington, N.C. | 63.2 | 77.6 | 22.8% |
| AMONG SMALL MARKETS | |||
| The Villages, Fla. | $13.8 | $18.5 | 33.9% |
| Statesville-Mooresville, N.C. | 27.0 | 33.6 | 24.7% |
| Culpeper, Va. | 8.0 | 9.9 | 24.6% |
| Cornelia, Ga. | 7.5 | 9.2 | 22.5% |
| Lake City, Fla. | 10.7 | 13.1 | 22.3% |
| Granbury, Texas | 11.3 | 13.7 | 21.3% |
| Columbia, Tenn. | 13.8 | 16.7 | 21.1% |
| Picayune, Miss. | 9.1 | 11.0 | 20.7% |
| Daphne-Fairhope-Foley, Ala. | 31.9 | 38.5 | 20.6% |
| Lincolnton, N.C. | 13.4 | 16.1 | 20.0% |
| in the West | |||
| St. George, Utah | $21.9 | $29.4 | 34.2% |
| Greeley, Colo. | 42.4 | 54.5 | 28.4% |
| Bend, Ore. | 30.8 | 39.4 | 27.9% |
| Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, Ariz. | 786.8 | 997.1 | 26.7% |
| Provo-Orem, Utah | 76.7 | 96.5 | 25.8% |
| Boise City-Nampa, Idaho | 109.5 | 137.7 | 25.8% |
| Las Vegas-Paradise, Nev. | 331.5 | 416.6 | 25.7% |
| Prescott, Ariz. | 41.0 | 51.1 | 24.6% |
| Coeur d'Alene, Idaho | 24.9 | 30.9 | 24.0% |
| Grand Junction, Colo. | 27.1 | 33.3 | 22.9% |
| AMONG SMALL MARKETS | |||
| Fernley, Nev. | $9.4 | $12.7 | 34.4% |
| Cedar City, Utah | 6.6 | 8.4 | 28.3% |
| Heber, Utah | 3.5 | 4.5 | 27.9% |
| Pahrump, Nev. | 8.1 | 10.3 | 27.4% |
| Bozeman, Mont. | 18.3 | 23.2 | 26.6% |
| Hilo, Hawaii | 28.1 | 34.2 | 21.5% |
| Montrose, Colo. | 7.4 | 9.0 | 21.3% |
| Edwards, Colo. | 12.3 | 15.0 | 21.3% |
| Gillette, Wyo. | 8.3 | 10.1 | 21.2% |
| Prineville, Ore. | 3.9 | 4.7 | 20.5% |
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