Q4 Q&A
Warren Shoulberg -- Gifts and Dec, 10/4/2011 7:18:43 AM
IF YOU THINK YOU CAN SAFELY PREDICT HOW THE HOLIDAY SEASON IS GOING TO BE AT RETAIL THIS YEAR, YOU ARE A BETTER MAN (OR WOMAN) THAN ME.
You're probably also a little crazy.
Forecasting the fourth quarter is always a tough call, something usually only left for clueless economists and fools. There are just too many variables, too many unknowns and too many wild cards out there to be reasonably safe in your predictions.
But to help clarify things a bit and in the interests of the industry, allow me to present the following question and answer session:
Question: What price points are going to sell best this holiday season?
Answer: The really good stuff ... and the really cheap stuff. Like much of America itself, the consumption of gift products is increasingly becoming a two-headed beast. Low-end promotional and impulse products are in great demand for people trading down and looking for a quick, inexpensive fix for their gift giving needs.
On the top end, that customer is still doing quite nicely and while they may not be flaunting it quite the way they used to, they still have the buying power, taste level and the will to buy the good stuff.
Question: Maybe I should trade my top end down a bit just in case?
Answer: Absolutely not. Lots of stores made the mistake of walking away from their better merchandise assortments over the past two years and have left a lot of business on the table ... or the counter ... or somewhere. Do not abandon your best high-end customers.
Question: What categories do you think are going to do better this holiday?
Answer: Anything to do with making people feel better is going to be the hot ticket this season. So, that's personal accessories and jewelry so they feel better about how they look. But it's also bath and body products so they feel better about how they feel. And it's candy and gourmet snacks so they feel better about ... well, they feel better because it just tastes good.
Question: Any styles you think are going to sell well?
Answer: More so than even the past few years, this is going to be a comfort food holiday. People are pretty edgy about things and tired of the turmoil in Washington, the stock market and the world in general. They just want to get home, get comfortable and shut out the world. So, anything that says warm and cozy is likely to sell pretty nicely. If you could make meat loaf scented candles and jewelry made of mac and cheese, your business would be having a very merry Christmas indeed.
Question: So, how's business going to be in general this holiday season?
Answer: Do I look crazy to you? I don't have a clue.
We would love your feedback!
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