Another Year... Another Column
Warren Shoulberg -- Gifts and Dec, 1/1/2012 2:00:00 AM
Warren Shoulberg
Ok, here it is folks, the annual start-of-the-new-year column from a resident business magazine editor, laying out the themes for the next 12 Months, boldly making predictions and giving incredible insight into how things will be, while at the same time capturing the hopes and dreams of an industry on the precipice of a great new era.
Then again, not.
Anyone who makes short-term predictions these days has got to be crazy, as is clear by the number of times the experts have been wrong about things over the past few years. I've always said, if you're going to forecast, forecast 20 years out when nobody's around to remember what you said.
Besides, as strange and unpredictable as 2011 turned out to be, I have a feeling 2012 will be every bit the same ... and maybe more so. As an industry, we keep stepping into shift s - if you will - that are very diff rent from the past. The old rules don't apply and you can't just sit around and say, "well, this is how we did it last time."
Certainly no one currently in business has ever before been through an economic meltdown like we continue to endure, led by a housing market that refuses to be resurrected. And until that housing market is fixed, nothing else in the economy is going to be fixed. That is so clear to many people, it defies logic why it is not equally obvious to others.
This is also an election year and that every-four-years cycle is always full of surprises. The powers-that-be - and the powers-that want-to-be - have a habit of doing things that change the game to gain a competitive advantage come November. Given the political climate these days, there should be even more of that in store for us this election season.
Then you have the whole issue of China. We still get a majority of the products this industry sells from China and the changes we've seen over there - labor shortages, currency fluctuations, reallocation of priorities away from low-margin consumer goods - are only going to accelerate in 2012. Yes there are other countries waiting to pick up some of the slack, but it's going to require multiple solutions to multiple situations. China has been a great one-stop shopping spot for the gift and home industry and that era is coming to a close.
All of that said, anyone reading this should take a minute to give themselves a little pat on the back (assuming you are still limber enough to do so). You've just gone through an extraordinary year and if you're paying attention to this, you are still in this business.
You done good and chances are you'll do the same in 2012.
We would love your feedback!
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Changin' Times in China
Jun 17, 2011 -
Seven for Eleven
Mar 1, 2011 -
Brandwise Named to Inc. 500 List
Sep 22, 2010 -
GHTA Adds Retailer Members
Jan 5, 2010 -
Ex-Macy's Suval Starts Consulting Firm
Apr 19, 2011
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