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Above all, a home must be warm, welcoming, and comfortable," notes fashion designer Oscar de la Renta, whose debut collection of furniture by Century showed at the fall High Point market. That about sums up the state of the gift and decorative accessories industry as we head into 2003: home, warmth, and comfort. One year ago, our trends and forecasts article was being written in the shadow of the events of September 11, 2001. We said then that in times of strife, Americans look to family and home for safety and security. Little has changed. Terrorist activities overseas, the sniper rage at home, and the unsettled Middle East have made Americans happy to stay home.

But there are changes occurring in the consumer market for home products, driven especially by the influx of younger consumers. Vendors and manufacturers are fully aware that the face of the American shopper is showing fewer wrinkles, and they are setting their future goals by targeting this younger demographic.

Furniture manufacturer Drexel Heritage, for example, has identified three categories of consumers in its marketing strategy. Of the two "younger" categories, the first is the dual-income household made up of people in their 30s and 40s. The woman "values comfort and style, but is never trendy." The second category consists of consumers in their 20s and 30s who may not be ready for marriage yet, but have money to spend on their home environment. The company is targeting its furniture collections to appeal to these groups both in styling and price.

At the same time, Lexington Home Brands introduced its LivingStyle concept. Designed to appeal to the young buyer, LivingStyle represents the opening price point for Lexington, and currently offers versions of the bedroom furnishings of Tommy Bahama, Bob Timberlake, and Betsy Cameron at prices up to 20 percent less than the regular branded lines. Later, the LivingStyle customer can add pieces from the branded lines as her home and income grow.

And where the furniture industry goes, the gift and decorative accessory industries are sure to follow. Here's what gift and decorative accessories manufacturers told us to be on the lookout for in 2003:

Not surprisingly, "Traditional" and "Nesting/ Entertaining at Home" topped the list of design directions that gift and decorative accessories manufacturers reported taking. While it's not a time for "edgy" or "jarring" design, traditional doesn't necessarily mean staid or dull. For example, Oriental Accents recently introduced the bright colors and fanciful patterns of Susan Sargent to its line with the Susan Sargent Collection of lamps, plates, vases, urns, and other home accessories. And Toyo has lightened its color palate with the designs of Lillian August.

Traditional would also describe another design theme prevalent in home accent showrooms. The current popularity of "French market" or "French Bistro" may be a result of armchair travel, where consumers choose to design with images of a popular travel destination rather than spending money to venture far from home.

According to our survey, "Americana" and "Lodge" have also increased in popularity as design trends among manufacturers, and now seem firmly established categories supported by recognized names such as Ernest Hemingway, Bob Timberlake, and Warren Kimble. While the casual aspect of these design trends are a great part of their appeal, look for a "dressing up" of casual in some areas. For example, the Bob Timberlake furniture line by Lexington Home Brands now comes with a rich, dark, "Vintage Reserve" finish that evokes antique furnishings.

"Retro" continues to have great appeal as the Baby Boomer generation ages and reflects nostalgically on the past. Thomasville Furniture, following its very successful Hemingway Collection launch of nearly five years ago, introduced the Bogart Collection this fall. Its design inspiration comes from the elegance and romance epitomized in 1940s and '50s movies, and the "effortless style" of the era's reigning star, Humphrey Bogart. Art Deco motifs figures largely in the collection, and names such as Romanoff's Club Chair, Contessa Banquet, and El Morocco Bar help capture the spirit of the period. The actor's son, Stephen, who had a hand in the development of the collection, emphasized that the individual pieces should be sized to fit comfortably in an apartment setting. It's a change in direction from the gargantuan introductions of late that require acre-sized rooms to accommodate them. It may also reflect a sense that the Bogart Collection will "play" better in urban areas where apartments and lofts are more prevalent.

Retro design has also made an appearance in kitchen appliances over the past few seasons. Sunbeam Mixmasters and chrome toasters introduced in the 1930s are popular holiday gift items, as is the Oster beehive blender, first introduced in 1946.

Thirty percent of the respondents to the survey cited "Spiritual/Religion" as a design trend, similar to last year's results. Another 28 percent see "Modern/Contemporary" figuring in their product lines.

The "Asian" design trend continues to slip in popularity, with just 14 percent of respondents citing it as a leading theme, down from 21 percent the year before. Again, when respondents were asked if they saw any design trends fading in popularity, 59 percent said "yes"; out of those, 18 percent each said that "Asian" and "Safari" were on the decline. Yet there still seem to be a lot of Asian-inspired products in showrooms. It may be that what we've called "Asian" style in the past — simple, unadorned shapes — is now an integral component of Western design.

"Earth tones" was the leading color trend, reported by 61 percent of our respondents, and "Neutrals" were cited by 48 percent. In between the two was "Brights," cited by 52 percent (multiple responses were permitted). Again, appealing to the younger consumer may be one reason for the popularity of brights, as manufacturers move away from monotones to a more varied color palette. For example, Country Originals, well known for the "buttermilk" shades of its ceramic, wood, and metal garden and home accessories, has introduced a spring 2003 line of products in a range of colors.

For a more complete review of color trends, turn to page 128.

New product introductions are, of course, the lifeblood of specialty retailers. They are what brings customers into the store. Our survey respondents were asked how many new lines or collections they plan to introduce in 2003, and the response was an average of 5.7. Some 28 percent said they would be introducing two new lines or collections; 13 percent will introduce three; and 17 percent will introduce four.

When asked to compare their number of new introductions for 2003 with the number introduced in 2002, 61 percent said they were about the same; 28 percent responded that they were introducing more new lines in 2003; and 11 percent said fewer.

With price points so important in this unsettled economy, our respondents were split when asked if they planned to change prices in 2003. Fifty-one percent said yes and 49 percent said no, with 65 percent of the "yes" respondents saying their prices would be higher than in 2002.

With retailers demanding better prices, manufacturers are required to find cheaper resources. One glass and ceramics importer has responded to the tighter retail climate by creating two tiers of merchandise. One is composed of Italian glass and ceramics at higher price points; the other of similar products from Poland, Romania, and Portugal at about half the price. "There is still a market for the higher-priced Italian product," says the vendor. "But the other stuff looks just as good."

The survey, conducted by Judi Fulbright of Gifts & Decorative Accessories' Market Research Department, is based on the answers of 152 manufacturers and vendors of gifts and decorative accessory products, including holiday and garden decor, tabletop, frames, desk accessories, candles, collectibles, and personal care items. Sixty-seven percent said that their most important distribution channels were specialty gift, home accessories, florist, or stationery stores.

Twenty-one percent of the respondents have annual sales of less than $1 million, 53 percent have sales of $1 million to $4.9 million, and 10 percent each have sales of $5 million to $9.9 million and $10 million to $19.9 million. Six percent have sales in excess of $20 million.