The End of Factories

There is so much hand-wringing lately about the rising costs of raw material and labor, it may come as a surprise to hear that in a few years these issues may seem totally beside the point. Before you know it, every home could become a mini-factory or design studio.

Is that science fiction? I don't think so. Why? Because there is technology in place right now that can make this happen. It's called 3D printing and it may change our lives.

3D printing, as the name implies, allows the user to print or extrude a three-dimensional object. These printers have been around for a while, but they have been expensive and have, therefore, been primarily used by very large companies to make prototypes.

However, once these printers are widely available, people will be able to print a three-dimensional object right in their own home. As Hod Lipson, professor at Cornell University, states in a May 7, 2007 article in The New York Times entitled “Beam It Down from the Web, Scotty,” “you can imagine printing a toothbrush, a fork, a shoe. Who knows where it will go from here?”

In the March 12 issue of Computerworld magazine, there is an interesting article entitled “3D printing: The next big thing?” In it, writer Lamont Wood quotes Cathy Lewis, CEO of Desktop Factory, a company that makes 3D printers, as saying: “The long-term vision is rapid manufacturing in the home. You have the ability to create one-off products and customized toys. Instead of importing items by millions from China, transporting them to warehouses and then stores, where we drive to pick them up, you will download a legal file, for a legal fee, and print your own [parts].”

The price has recently come down dramatically. The Z Printer 450 from the Z Corporation is currently available for $4,995. By the year 2011, these types of printers could drop to a retail price of $1,000. Others think the price drop will be even greater. The Times quotes Bill Gross, chairman of IdeaLab, as saying: “[T]he technology [Idealab] has developed […] will allow the price of [3D] printers to fall to $1,000 in four years. 'The really powerful thing about this idea is that the fundamental engineering allows us to make it for $300 in materials.'”

Desktop Factory currently sells its model for $4,995, but Lewis anticipates that the cost of goods to create a Desktop Factory unit will fall to $500 by late 2011. She also wants to see more low-end software tools become available. She and others point to Google's SketchUp 3D design package, available as a free download, as an example of what would be needed. If Lewis is right, this is, potentially, a business model disruption comparable to the change we are seeing in the music and newspaper businesses.

Oddly, I find there to be a back-to-the-future quality about the idea. It reminds me of when I was a kid and people used to sew clothes from patterns. They would go to the store, buy a dress pattern and material, then go home and make it on their sewing machine. Similarly, with 3D printing, a consumer would buy a pattern they like, probably in the form of a code or download, and (maybe with paint and some kind of plastic or resin goop), make it at home.

• Designers will become far more powerful as they will be able to largely bypass traditional means of manufacturing, marketing and distribution by using existing Internet technologies.
• The first products to be affected will probably be simpler items.
• A market will be created for supplies you would need to make the products: Anything from software to paint to liquid or powder resins.
• Companies will no longer have to pay for inventory, purchase raw materials or pay for labor. Costs of production will dramatically decrease.
• Cottage industries will spring up as at-home enthusiasts will enter the field with their own designs.
• A plethora of new companies will enter the field as costs of business will reduce dramatically, as will the risks for start up companies.

It sounds far-fetched, but if you had told me a few years ago that I could buy my music without having to buy a CD, I would have found that pretty hard to believe as well. Whether we like it or not, we live in an age of profound change. Those who anticipate the future are less likely to get bowled over by it.