NRF Forecasts Holiday Sales Increase

GDA Staff -- Gifts and Dec, October 4, 2012

WASHINGTON - Holiday sales are looking good and are expected to increase by 4.1 percent to $586.1 billion according to the National Retail Federation (NRF).

The NRF projection is higher than the 10-year average holiday sales increase of 3.5 percent. Actual holiday sales in 2011 grew 5.6 percent. Online sales alone are expected to increase 12 percent over last year to as much as $96 billion.

Recent government data shows mixed indicators that could impact holiday sales, including weak job and income growth and a stagnant unemployment rate but also increases in consumer confidence and home prices, according the NRF. The NRF forecast is based on a model using indicators such as consumer confidence, consumer credit, disposable personal income, and previous monthly retail sales releases and includes non-store direct-to-consumer, kiosks and online sales.

"In spite of the uncertainties that exist in our economy and among consumers, we believe we'll see solid holiday sales growth this year," said Matthew Shay, president and CEO, NRF, in a statement. "Variables including an upcoming presidential election, confusion surrounding the ‘fiscal cliff' and concern relating to future economic growth could all combine to affect consumers' spending plans, but overall we are optimistic that retailers promotions will hit the right chord with holiday shoppers."