After China
In my last blog I raised the question: “If China is ready to move on from toy manufacturing and there is no obvious heir apparent, what is going to happen?” After all, though Japan, Hong Kong and now China have each rotated into and out of the position of world’s toy manufacturer, there has never been a country with a production capacity that approaches the sheer scale of China. In addition, we have never had this much of the world’s production come out of one place.
After reading “Japan, the U.S. and the Globalization of Children’s Consumer Culture” and evaluating what I am seeing and hearing from my contacts inside and outside of toy nation I see two major trends occurring: One will be the emergence of a new center of production (probably Viet Nam) and the other will be a move to producing toys that are less dependent upon manual labor, plastic and other petroleum based materials and more dependent upon technology and virtual play components. As a result, though traditional, industrial age toy manufacturing will move out of China, that which is technology based will stay.
So, what can we learn from history?
- That we can’t totally depend upon history because some things do happen for the first time.
- That there will be some short term disruptions in how toys are made, where toys are and of what they are made.
- That bewildering new technologies are going to test our ability as an industry, as companies and as individuals to cope with change.
- That change comes fast and those who are adaptable and fast will benefit.
- Finally, we can learn that whatever does happen will, in its own turn, change again. Nothing stays the same.
What do you think is going to happen?
