Wal-Mart’s unfulfilled self-fulfilling prophecy; is it the end of “kids getting older younger?”

The increase in sales of toys to children in the 9-12 years old age group last year (NPD) may have more significance than we think. That is what I was musing about last week as I walked through a Wal-Mart in New Jersey. 

As I stood in one of the toy aisles my mind wandered back to the 2008 ToyCon. In memory, I sat in the audience with other toy industry leaders as we heard Laura Phillips, Wal-Mart Vice President of Toys, tell our us that kids 3-5 was the place to focus our efforts. 

That speech should have been a clear sign that if any age group was going to decline in 2009, it was going to be any age group but kids 3 to 5. So what happened; sales to children 3 to 5 declined and the only age group to increase its sales in 2009 was children 9 to 12.

Now here is what I think we need to think about. Wal-Mart’s power is so great that any prophecy they make should be a self-fulfilling prophecy. If they say, for example, that apricot flavored creamy style peanut butter is going to be the big seller in the United States in a given year you can bet it will be. 

So, what are we to make of the fact that Wal-Mart’s prophecy did not come through. I think it tells us that the sales to the 9-12 year old age group may be more significant than we thought. It happened despite Wal-Mart.

Bottom line, I think industry leaders would do well not to treat the increase in sales to the 9 to 12 year old age group as an aberration. It could be significant. Maybe, "kids getting older younger" isn’t as permanent a concept as we throught. Maybe it is reversing.