If China catches a cold...

China is big and its toy industry is even bigger; at least in the impact it has on the rest of the world’s toy businesses. Toy companies and retailers all over the world depend upon China to produce more than 85% of the globe’s toys. 

So what happens to the world’s toy industries if China catches a cold? That was the question I asked myself as I read these headlines in one day’s (January 12, 2010) South China Daily:

·         “Beijing warned over inflation”

·         “China overtakes US as largest vehicle market”

·         “Cadmium danger in Children’s jewelry”

·         “24 million [Chinese] men face single future by 2020, study finds”

As I read these articles I was struck by how big China is, not just in terms of production, population and GDP but in the opportunity and challenges it presents to itself and the rest of the world. This handful of headlines show the risk of instability this country faces from an overheating economy to continuing safety concerns to the potential for social unrest (24 million single men can get into a lot of trouble). 

China is beautiful, China is powerful and China is going to be one big headache to the rest of the world and the toy industry if things start to fall apart. I absolutely don’t sense anything imminent. I do, however, see a country that has a hammerlock on the future of every toy company, retailer, inventor, designer, packager, you name it in the world.

What’s the backup plan if for some reason business is not as usual in China? I don’t see one.