Rough times ahead for Video gaming?

Historically, many successful video game platforms and games are released in Japan first, and as much as six to nine months later in the US. All platforms age, and if a platform is likely to be perceived as outdated it would first show signs in Japan. A good example is the Nintedo DSi, the latest Nintendo handheld that was released in the US two weekends ago. The DSi was released in Japan almost six months ago. The reason? DS sales in Japan were slumping so it was time to roll out something new. DS sales in the US were still performing well, thus no reason to roll out the new platform at the same time. Whenever a new platform is rolled out, the number of new titles that take advantage of the capabilities of the new platform tends to be small and takes some time to make its way into the marketplace. Traditionally, year two of a new platform tends to show greater financial results because by then many more titles become available for sale in the marketplace. A new platform alone will not generate the kinds of consumer revenue numbers we have experienced in the last two years. In the toy world, similar comparisons can be made. Within the last five years, LeapFrog's Leapster, Fisher-Price's Pixter, and Hasbro's VideoNow all experienced a similar trend. Year one, few titles available. Year two, many more titles for sale. The same could be said about the future of the iPix and VEO by Irwin Toys / iToys. Year one, its about getting the device out with as many titles as you can to support interest in the plaform. Year two, making sure many more titles are available to appeal to new and existing buyers and to support longer relevancy of the platform as well.

We're also talking about Japan, a culture that has an overemphasis on the new. The average lifespan of a bar or nightclub in Tokyo is about 3 years. A lack of perceived change coupled with a society that glorifies change is a formula for eventual decline. While I think the toy industry has lessons to learn from this, mostly in terms of where the new diversions are, I doubt it has anything to fear. If anything, this might be signalling a market opening in a culture that has oversaturated itself with digital media and virtual connectivity.