Reflections on the 2009 Dallas Fall Toy Preview

I would describe the mood at this year’s Dallas Fall Toy Preview as cautiously optimistic with a growing but still tentative belief that things are truly getting better. It appears that last year was just too rough for anyone to feel carried away by this year’s prospects.

I spoke with a large number of buyers, reps and manufacturers. They were universally realistic. Those I spoke with seemed confident that this year’s Christmas selling season would be no worse than last year and probably a little better. They were not, however, prepared to engage in emotional buying or selling. Facts on the ground (retail sales) would determine orders and reorders.

I did, however, find a pocket of excitement among Game and Puzzle manufacturers who were, to a man and woman, extremely upbeat after coming off of very good years. Consumers chose to invest in these games and puzzles as a means of providing high value entertainment at a low price.   

I did note an area of concern among manufacturers and sales reps. A number of them expressed concern over what they see as the retail community’s narrowing of product selections, escalating emphasis on licensed and TV advertised products and continuing reluctance to place large orders. They felt that these trends, particularly the first two, work against smaller companies with new products. 

I kept my ears open for buzz and I did detect some enthusiasm over Zhu Zhu Pets and Spin Masters’ Liv dolls. Strong sales of any toy are good for the entire industry as they raise spirits and drive consumers into the toy departments and toy stores.

How do I feel after attending the Dallas Fall Toy Preview: Optimistic! I think that the combination of some hit toys, a severe drop off in the demand for video games and a weak 4^th quarter in 2008 are going to make this year look pretty good. I am sticking with my forecast of an increase in the second half of 2009 of 1% plus.