The toy industry and the weather

My eye was caught last week by an article in a UK newspaper, the Scotsman, entitled “Revealed: how Tesco’s weathermen are predicting what you will want for tea.”  It seems that this large retailer is avoiding waste and maximizing sales by employing its own weather forecasters. As the article puts it:

They have employed their own experts after finding existing weather reports "unreliable". Tesco said the new system would also save hundreds of thousands of pounds in food wastage by matching supply with demand. .. Much of the waste results from stores over-ordering foods they cannot sell when the weather changes.

[A] Spokesman [for Tesco], Mike Baess said: "An example of how we got it right is that in the last week Scotland has had some pretty dismal weather, more akin to mid-autumn, despite it still being summertime. "At this time our stores should still have BBQ and salad foods on their shelves, but the team sent out a five-day weather report advising the supply chain of the bad weather."

I found the notion that a retailer would employ its own weather forecasters so intriguing that I was moved to see what this winter has in store for us. I wish I hadn’t. Here is what the Farmers’ Almanac has to say:

As homeowners across the country pray for a mild winter to offset rising energy costs , the world-famous Farmers’ Almanac is warning us to prepare for the worst. “Numb’s the word!” is how the 192-year-old publication is predicting the upcoming winter season.

For 2008–2009, the Farmers’ Almanac is forecasting a “numbing” winter, with below-average temperatures for at least two-thirds of the country. Only the Far West and Southeast will see near-normal temperatures. Few, if any, locations will enjoy many above-normal temperature days this upcoming season.

Higher costs for fuel mean less expendable income. That’s not good.

But what about Toy Fair?  Here is what the Almanac had to say about that:

Winter will be colder than normal, on average, especially north of the Chesapeake Bay. The coldest periods will occur in early to mid- and late January and mid-February…Watch for snow around Thanksgiving, with other snowy periods in mid-January and mid- and late February.

Oh well, maybe they’re wrong.