January...

Those clever Romans (or Greeks or whoever it was) that devised the modern calendar didn't know that the first month of the year would so much come to symbolize new starts, rebirths and renewals, not just personally but professionally.
That is certainly the case in the gift industry where the month of January is the begining of the new business cycle and all the trade shows throughout the country take on such significance. Given that, we can make the following assumptions of what's happened so far this year:
1. The January shows have been uniformally strong. Some have been better than others but none have been washouts and there are positive vibes from sea to shining show sea.
2. Inventory levels are good up and down the food chain. There were some concerns that vendors had stockpiled a little too much merchandise in antiticipation of an early Chinese New Year's, but that doesn't seem to be the case. Retail inventory levels are certainly in good shape following a better-than-expected Christmas for most.
3. Even having just said Christmas was better than expected, when the final numbers are counted it probably won't be as much of a home run as some have been saying. There was certainly business done, but it was just as certainly done at the expense of margins and shoppers could put another notch on their credit cards when it came to waiting out the retailer for the best possible price.
4. That's why the Great Penney Experiment is going to be so fascinating to watch. Not since Sears tried everyday low pricing in the 1990s and Target solidified its cheap chic positioning in the early 2000s have we seen a big retailer try as bold a move to change its merchandising strategy. This one is pretty gutsy. It could actually work too, if investors and management have patience. That's a big if.
5. Thank heaven it's February. We can catch our breath for a few shopping days before spring hits.