Paging Chicken Little
Last night I talked to my neighbor, the currency trader, who is more convinced than ever that we're about to see a global repeat of 2008. I won't repeat the explanation because you'll either think I'm nutty or I'll just scare the heck out of you. But, bottom line, he's leveraging everything and going all cash until the bottom - 40% loss in global equities. I'm neither that clever nor apocalyptic so I'll probably just stay in my mutual funds and hope for the best.
At any rate, it brought up a question for me: Are any of my clients capable of surviving another 2008? Answer: No. And I know a long list of former great, now treading water companies that probably aren't ready for that sort of stress test either. Think about it, credit freezes up and businesses liquefy their balance sheets to stay alive. Same as in '08-'09, but that's when we had fat to keep us warm. Since then we've reigned in receivables, leveraged our assets, thinned our inventories and shortened our cash cycle. This would be a leaner winter.
I say it's a low odds event but just in case take a look at your balance sheet and think about a 30% drop in sales (remember that tail spin in early 2009?). If you're ready for that kind of jolt, wow, damn nice job being an amazing CEO. I'd sure like to call you for advice some day. If you're not ready for that kind of shock, no worries; my neighbor says it won't really crash until mid-late 2013.
Jeff Sands is a managing director with Dorset Partners LLC . A summary of their work in 2011 can be found at http://www.dorsetpartners.com/2011casestudies.pdf
Lisa commented:
Have you read The Hundred Languages of Children? Seems like something you would enjoy. I just fsniihed reading through all of your posts. I can relate to all that you have felt over the past year. I was a preschool teacher for 10 years and then went back to school to get my BA in special education. It was what I saw in my student teaching and then in my volunteer time in my first daughter's school that convinced me that I wanted no part of the conventional school system for my own kids. I now homeschool my 3 kids and am currently also doing preschool with my niece and nephew. I was research conscious teaching when I came across your blog. I have my own homeschool/preschool blog but would like to start posting more on concscious homeschooling. I'm excited to have found you and would love to keep the dialogue going!
Gracyn commented:
I'm not easily impseresd. . . but that's impressing me! :)
Cele commented:
I can't tell you enough how much I LOVE Preston's piuecrts. We had fun taking them too (other than the little peepee incident, but it was all fun and good) He is already changing so much, I'm soooo glad you captured my precious boy on film he may age quickly, but photos last a lifetime!
